Wednesday, September 28, 2011
The limitations of statistics
I read over the blackberry jam this morning that the best efforts of the statisticians at the Department of Life Skills & Enhancement have failed to produce forecasts of the demand for new teachers good enough to damp down the boom-to-bust cycles of teacher training. They look at the numbers of children rolling through the system, they look at the numbers of teachers rolling through the system, they try to make allowances for the shifting sands of policy and fashion. They even try to look at the incentives given to teacher training institutions to put bums on seats. Or to take them off when times are hard. But despite all those student years learning about Durbin-Watson statistics and other exotica, the statisticians have failed to crack it. And while this failure will be fodder for silly party rows between party politicians, it is not really a party matter. It is just something which it would be better if we were better at.Is the answer to cut funding in schools in favour of funding in statisticians at the aforesaid Department of Life Skills & Enhancement?
Or making a party matter of it after all, is the answer to privatise the whole educational enterprise? Get rid of the dead hand of central planning. Let that superior knowledge machine, that superior neural network known as the invisible hand of the market sort everything out, without pain or crunching of gears. Not.
Back in Epsom our failure is nearer to nature. The former bottle for tequila (illustrated) refuses to bloom. It has an adequate supply of water & sunlight and an adequate supply of organic detritus, animal and vegetable, but the bugs & bacteria are not playing the game. No visible activity at all. Maybe a microscope would detect something but my specs. from Boots do not.
While one of the two jars of blackberries and whisky has been blooming merrily. With the catch that the bubbles generated by the fermentation process get trapped in the blackberries and the whole thing boils over, completely swamping the bubble contraption designed to let off excess & unwanted gases. As a result there were clean-up operations on successive mornings. But yesterday, or perhaps the day before, I bit the bullet and decided to deal with the problem. Empty the jar, strain the fluid back into it and then reseal with the cleaned out bubble contraption - after which all should be well. It should be able to bubble away without boiling over and without needing daily, if any, attention. But easier said than done: emptying a one gallon narrow-necked glass flagon full of blackberry pulp and a dark liquid looking a bit like neat Ribena but not smelling much like it without making a prodigious mess is no mean feat. However, several saucepans, funnels, jelly bags & so on & so forths later we had the fluid back in the jar, slightly diluted. Hopefully without too much alcohol evaporating. It is now bubbling gently and a light pink froth has formed on the surface. Oddly, no odours, pleasant or otherwise, generated by the gases leaving the bubble contraption. They must be mostly water.
# posted by Jim @ 1:27 AM 
